Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

Uncertainties in short-term forecasts of a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event: Assessment with satellite observations

Abstract : The uncertainties in short-term forecasts of a 5 day episode of heavy precipitation in southeastern France were investigated. The episode took place from 19 to 23 November 2007 resulting in 400 mm of precipitation locally and was fairly typical of events known as “Cevenoles” that frequently affect the region. Several sets of 24 h meso-NH simulations were constructed that differed in their initial and boundary conditions. Comparison with rain gauges showed that simulations initialized from large-scale operational analyses failed to capture the intensity of precipitation associated with convective events and overestimated the amount of precipitation when the conditions were not convective. In contrast, simulations starting from the mesoscale analysis of the French operational mesoscale model ALADIN were more successful in forecasting the amount and location of the precipitation. Satellite observations revealed that this was due to a better prediction of the intensity of the surface wind over the sea during the stratiform regime and a more timely onset of convection over the sea related to a better prediction of the quantity of precipitable water. This study shows the benefits of using satellite observations to verify precipitation forecasts over the sea.
Complete list of metadatas

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00562341
Contributor : Maria-Isabel Ledig <>
Submitted on : Thursday, February 3, 2011 - 10:43:32 AM
Last modification on : Friday, January 10, 2020 - 9:08:49 PM

Links full text

Identifiers

Collections

Citation

H. Clark, J. P. Chaboureau. Uncertainties in short-term forecasts of a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event: Assessment with satellite observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union, 2010, 115, pp.D22213. ⟨10.1029/2010JD014388⟩. ⟨hal-00562341⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

129