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Projection of the daily travel of an ageing population: The Paris and Montreal case, 1975-2020

Abstract : Ageing of the population, urban sprawl and car dependency will change travel patterns. The main objective of this paper is to give elements for a better understanding of the impact of changing demographics on the long term evolution of daily mobility using demographic-based models to forecast, for the elderly population, car-ownership, trip frequency, distance traveled, average trip distance. A second objective is to measure the impact of the long term tendencies observed on the appearance of new needs of travel demand such as a rapid increase of demand-responsive transport. The paper compares two agglomerations, both in a strong ageing process, but in quite different sociocultural contexts: a large European metropolis: Paris, and a medium sized north-american city: Montreal. Many common conclusions derived from the two different cases studies reinforce the possibility of generalizing the conclusions to other situations.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, January 25, 2011 - 4:44:33 PM
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Virginie Dejoux, Yves Bussiere, Jean-Loup Madre, Jimmy Armoogum. Projection of the daily travel of an ageing population: The Paris and Montreal case, 1975-2020. Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis (Routledge), 2010, vol30 (n.4), pp 495-515. ⟨10.1080/01441640903166724⟩. ⟨hal-00559492⟩



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