Deterministic modeling for transmission of Human Papillomavirus 6/11: impact of vaccination. - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology Année : 2013

Deterministic modeling for transmission of Human Papillomavirus 6/11: impact of vaccination.

Résumé

This paper is devoted to assess the impact of quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine on prevalence of non-oncogenic HPV 6/11 types in French males and females. For this purpose, a non-linear dynamic model of heterosexual transmission for HPV 6/11 types infection is developed, which accounts for immunity due to vaccination in particular. The vaccinated reproduction number Rv is derived using the approach described by Diekmann (2010) called the Next Generation Operator approach. The model proposed is analyzed, with regard to existence and uniqueness of the solution, steady-state stability. Precisely, the stability of the model is investigated depending on the sign of Rv − 1. Prevalence data are used to fit a numerical HPV model, so as to assess infection rates. Our approach suggests that 10 years after introducting vaccination, the prevalence of HPV 6/11 types in females will be halved and that in males will be reduced by one quarter, assuming a sustained vaccine coverage of 30% among females. Using the formula we derived for the vaccinated reproduction number, we show that the non-oncogenic HPV 6/11 types would be eradicated if vaccine coverage in females is kept above 12%. Human Papillomavirus, deterministic epidemic model, equilibrium, stability, reproduction number, vaccination.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
preprint_MAJED_version3.pdf (1.03 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...

Dates et versions

hal-00555733 , version 1 (14-01-2011)
hal-00555733 , version 2 (11-02-2011)
hal-00555733 , version 3 (10-08-2012)

Identifiants

Citer

Laureen Ribassin-Majed, Rachid Lounes, Stéphan Clémençon. Deterministic modeling for transmission of Human Papillomavirus 6/11: impact of vaccination.. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology, 2013, 30 (1), pp.NA. ⟨10.1093/imammb/dqt001⟩. ⟨hal-00555733v3⟩
327 Consultations
1935 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More