A two-step fusion process for multi-criteria decision applied to natural hazards in mountains

Abstract : Mountain river torrents and snow avalanches gen- erate human and material damages with dramatic consequences. Knowledge about natural phenomenona is often lacking and expertise is required for decision and risk management purposes using multi-disciplinary quantitative or qualitative approaches. Expertise is considered as a decision process based on imperfect information coming from more or less reliable and conflicting sources. A methodology mixing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multi-criteria aid-decision method, and information fusion using Belief Function Theory is described. Fuzzy Sets and Possibilities theories allow to transform quantitative and qualita- tive criteria into a common frame of discernment for decision in Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST ) and Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) contexts. Main issues consist in basic belief assignments elicitation, conflict identification and management, fusion rule choices, results validation but also in specific needs to make a difference between importance and reliability and uncertainty in the fusion process.
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  • HAL Id : hal-00471876, version 1
  • ARXIV : 1005.0896

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Jean-Marc Tacnet, Mireille Batton-Hubert, Jean Dezert. A two-step fusion process for multi-criteria decision applied to natural hazards in mountains. Workshop on the Theory of Belief Functions, April 1- 2, 2010 Brest, France, Apr 2010, Brest, France. Paper no 125. ⟨hal-00471876⟩

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