Athlete atypicity on the edge of human achievement: performances stagnate after the last peak, in 1988.

Geoffroy C.B. Berthelot (1) , Muriel Tafflet (1, 2) , Nour El Helou (1, 3) , Stéphane Len (1) , Sylvie Escolano (1, 2) , Marion Guillaume (1) , Hala Nassif (1) , Julien Tolaini (1) , Valérie Thibault (1) , François-Denis Desgorces (3, 1) , Olivier Hermine (4) , Jean-François Toussaint (1, 3, 5)

1 IRMES - EA 7329 - Institut de recherche biomédicale et d’épidémiologie du sport
2 PARCC - UMR-S U970 - Paris-Centre de Recherche Cardiovasculaire
3 UFR STAPS
4 CHRI - Cytokines, hématopoïèse et réponse immune
5 CIMS - Centre d'Investigation en Médecine du sport

The growth law for the development of top athletes performances remains unknown in quantifiable sport events. Here we present a growth model for 41351 best performers from 70 track and field (T&F) and swimming events and detail their characteristics over the modern Olympic era. We show that 64% of T&F events no longer improved since 1993, while 47% of swimming events stagnated after 1990, prior to a second progression step starting in 2000. Since then, 100% of swimming events continued to progress.We also provide a measurement of the atypicity for the 3919 best performances (BP) of each year in every event. The secular evolution of this parameter for T&F reveals four peaks; the most recent (1988) followed by a major stagnation. This last peak may correspond to the most recent successful attempt to push forward human physiological limits. No atypicity trend is detected in swimming. The upcoming rarefaction of new records in sport may be delayed by technological innovations, themselves depending upon economical constraints.

Domaines: Physiologie [q-bio.TO]; Sport

Geoffroy C.B. Berthelot, Muriel Tafflet, Nour El Helou, Stéphane Len, Sylvie Escolano, et al.. Athlete atypicity on the edge of human achievement: performances stagnate after the last peak, in 1988.. PLoS ONE, 2010, 5 (1), pp.e8800. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0008800⟩. ⟨hal-00456455⟩