LOGISTIC SUBSTITUTION MODEL AND TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING

Dmitry Kucharavy (1) , Roland de Guio (1)

1 LGeco - Laboratoire de Génie de la Conception

In this paper the application of several models, based on the logistic growth function (simple logistic, component logistic and logistic substitution models) in the context of technology change forecasting is discussed. The main idea of this paper is to revise existing models and arrange working hypotheses for future research. First, the features of a simple logistic model are presented, different types of competition are discussed and a component logistic model is briefly presented. Second, logistic substitution models in the context of long-term technological forecasting are reviewed. Third, some hypotheses about how to improve the reliability of the logistic substitution model for studying the technological future are proposed.

Mots clés: bi-logistic; multi-logistic; logistic substitution model; resource limitations; technology future study; logistic S-curve; socio-economic cycles

Domaines: Autre

Dmitry Kucharavy, Roland de Guio. LOGISTIC SUBSTITUTION MODEL AND TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING. TRIZ Future 2008 - Synthesis in Innovation, Nov 2008, Enschede, Netherlands. pp.65-73. ⟨hal-00338105⟩