Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area

N. Rebora (1) , L. Ferraris (1, 2) , J. von Hardenberg (1, 3) , A. Provenzale (1, 3)

1 CIMA
2 DIST
3 isac - Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e Del Clima [Torino]

The prediction of the small-scale spatial-temporal pattern of intense rainfall events is crucial for flood risk assessment in small catchments and urban areas. In the absence of a full deterministic modelling of small-scale rainfall, it is common practice to resort to the use of stochastic downscaling models to generate ensemble rainfall predictions to be used as inputs to rainfall-runoff models. In this work we present an application of a new spatial-temporal downscaling procedure, called RainFARM, to an intense precipitation event predicted by the limited-area meteorological model Lokal Model over north-west Italy. The uncertainty in flood prediction associated with the small unresolved scales of forecasted precipitation fields is evaluated by using an ensemble of downscaled fields to drive a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model.

Domaines: Interfaces continentales, environnement; Océan, Atmosphère; Sciences de la Terre

N. Rebora, L. Ferraris, J. von Hardenberg, A. Provenzale. Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2006, 6 (4), pp.611-619. ⟨hal-00299348⟩