Statistical Modeling for Real Domestic Hot Water Consumption Forecasting

Aurore Lomet (1) , Frédéric Suard (1) , David Chèze (2)

1 LADIS (CEA, LIST) - Laboratoire d'analyse des données et d'intelligence des systèmes (CEA, LIST)
2 LITEN - Laboratoire d'Innovation pour les Technologies des Energies Nouvelles et les nanomatériaux

In this paper, we study the real domestic hot water (DHW) consumptions from single family houses equipped with solar hot water tank. We model it to understand and forecast the daily needs of inhabitants. Thus, the forecasts can be integrated in a control strategy to optimize the energy cost by heating only the necessary DHW volume. At first, we realize a data analysis from real uses of several dwellings to lay assumptions of the statistical model. This study highlights a weekly periodicity, random fluctuations and the different profiles of consumption following the residence, the season, and the day of the week. Otherwise, having no prior information like the location or the number of residents, we propose an adaptive time series model which does not require strong a priori and computational time. Then, we develop an ARMA model to forecast the daily DHW volume and we apply it on each individual installation. This model allows to take into account the periodicity of one week, the consumption of the previous days and random fluctuations. The results obtained on real data show that this approach is very promising.

Mots clés: Domestic hot water consumption; ARMA model; statistical forecasting; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION

Domaines: Analyse de données, Statistiques et Probabilités [physics.data-an]; Modélisation et simulation; Optimisation et contrôle [math.OC]; Environnement et Société

Aurore Lomet, Frédéric Suard, David Chèze. Statistical Modeling for Real Domestic Hot Water Consumption Forecasting. 3rd International Conference on Solar Heating and Cooling for Buildings and Industry (SHC), China Acad Bldg Res, Oct 2014, Beijing, China. pp.379 - 387, ⟨10.1016/j.egypro.2015.02.138⟩. ⟨cea-01830794⟩