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Biogeosciences Discussions 5, 1 (2008) 573-603

Evolution of the potential distribution area of french mediterranean forests under global warming

C. Gaucherel 1, J. Guiot 2, L. Misson 3

(08/02/2008)

This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified. We modeled species growths with the help of a process-based model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE – MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20 and 21 centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5°K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a significant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak, respectively) at the end of the 21 century. While both species have complementary growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21 century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.

1 :	BotAnique et BioinforMatique de l'Architecture des Plantes (AMAP)
	Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR51 – CNRS : UMR5120 – Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] – Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) : UR0931 – Université Montpellier II - Sciences et techniques
2 :	Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement de géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE)
	CNRS : UMR6635 – Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] – INSU – Université de Provence - Aix-Marseille I – Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III
3 :	Centre d'écologie fonctionnelle et évolutive (CEFE)
	CNRS : UMR5175 – Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR101 – Université Montpellier II - Sciences et techniques – Université Montpellier I – Université Paul Valéry - Montpellier III – Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes

Domaine

:

Physique/Astrophysique/Cosmologie et astrophysique extra-galactique Planète et Univers/Astrophysique Planète et Univers/Interfaces continentales, environnement Sciences de l'environnement/Milieux et Changements globaux Planète et Univers/Océan, Atmosphère Planète et Univers/Sciences de la Terre

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Soumis le : Mardi 14 Octobre 2008, 10:32:32

Dernière modification le : Vendredi 12 Décembre 2008, 12:28:24