Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone

Augustin Colette; Claire Granier; Ø. Hodnebrog; H. Jakobs; A. Maurizi; A. Nyiri; S. Rao; M. Amann; B. Bessagnet; Ariela D'Angiola; M. Gauss; C. Heyes; Z. Klimont; F. Meleux; M. Memmesheimer; Aude Mieville; L. Rouïl; F. Russo; S. Schucht; D. Simpson; F. Stordal; F. Tampieri; M. Vrac

HAL : hal-00707127, version 1

DOI : 10.5194/acp-12-10613-2012

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Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone
Colette A., Granier C., Hodnebrog , Jakobs H., Maurizi A., Nyiri A., Rao S., Amann M., Bessagnet B., D'Angiola A. et al
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12, 21 (2012) 10613-10630 - http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00707127

Type de publication :

Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture

Domaine :

Physique/Physique/Physique Atmosphérique et Océanique

Sciences de l'environnement/Milieux et Changements globaux

Titre :

Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone

Auteur(s) :

Augustin Colette ¹, Claire Granier ^{2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7}, Ø. Hodnebrog ^8, 9, H. Jakobs ¹⁰, A. Maurizi ¹¹, A. Nyiri ¹², S. Rao ⁷, M. Amann ⁷, B. Bessagnet ¹, Ariela D'Angiola ^3, 4, 13, M. Gauss ¹², C. Heyes ⁷, Z. Klimont ⁷, F. Meleux ¹, M. Memmesheimer ¹⁰, Aude Mieville ¹⁴, L. Rouïl ¹, F. Russo ¹¹, S. Schucht ¹, D. Simpson ^12, 15, F. Stordal ⁸, F. Tampieri ¹¹, M. Vrac ¹⁶

Laboratoire :

1 :	Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)

	http://www.ineris.fr/

	INERIS

	Parc Technologique Alata 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte

	France

2 :	NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA ESRL)

	U.S. Department of Commerce – National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

	325 Broadway Boulder Colorado 80305

	États-Unis

3 :	Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS)

	http://www.latmos.ipsl.fr

	CNRS : UMR8190 – Université Pierre et Marie Curie [UPMC] - Paris VI – Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines – INSU

	France

4 :	Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL)

	http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/

	CNRS : FR636 – Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] – CEA – CNES – INSU – Université Pierre et Marie Curie [UPMC] - Paris VI – Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines – Ecole normale supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris

	4 Place Jussieu 75252 PARIS CEDEX 05

	France

5 :	Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

	University of Colorado – NOAA

	University of Colorado at Boulder CIRES Bldg., Rm. 318 Boulder, CO 80309-0216

	États-Unis

6 :	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) (MPI-M)

	http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/kontakt.html

	Max-Planck-Institut

	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Bundesstraße 53 20146 Hamburg Germany Telefon: (+49 40) 41173 - 0 Telefax: (+49 40) 41173 - 298

	Allemagne

7 :	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

	Schlossplatz 1 A-2361, Laxenburg

	Autriche

8 :	University of Oslo (UiO)

	http://www.uio.no/english/

	University of Oslo

	P.O 1072 Blindern 0316 Oslo

	Norvège

9 :	Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO)

	Center for International Climate and Environmental Research

	Oslo

	Norvège

10 :	Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research, University of Cologne (FRIUUK)

	University of Cologne

	Köln

	Allemagne

11 :	Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC/CNR)

	Italian National Research Council

	Italie

12 :	Norwegian Meteorological Institute

	Norwegian Meteorological Institute

	Norvège

13 :	Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)

	http://www.upmc.fr/

	Université Pierre et Marie Curie [UPMC] - Paris VI

	4 place Jussieu - 75005 Paris

	France

14 :	Laboratoire d'aérologie (LA)

	http://www.aero.obs-mip.fr/

	CNRS : UMR5560 – Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées – INSU – Université Paul Sabatier [UPS] - Toulouse III

	14 avenue Edouard Belin 31400 Toulouse

	France

15 :	Chalmers University of Technology, Department Radio and Space Science

	Chalmers University of Technology

	41296 Gothenburg

	Suède

16 :	Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE)

	http://www.lsce.ipsl.fr/

	CNRS : UMR8212 – CEA : DSM/LSCE – Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines

	LSCE-CEA-Orme des Merisiers (point courrier 129) F-91191 GIF-SUR-YVETTE CEDEX LSCE-Vallée Bât. 12, avenue de la Terrasse, F-91198 GIF-SUR-YVETTE CEDEX

	France

Équipe de recherche :

tact

Résumé :

In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment including varying assumptions on climate and energy access policies are investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric chemistry transport models. A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the model projection. Last, the modelling experiment is linked to a hind-cast study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models were extensively documented. The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone precursors such as NOx will drop to 30% to 50% of their current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O3 will slightly increase in NOx saturated areas but the overall O3 burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O3 levels for health (SOMO35) will be reduced down to 45% to 70% of their current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of daily maximumO3 is higher than 120 μg m-3 more than 25 days per year will drop from 43% down to 2 to 8%. We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both scenarios) are the main factors leading to the improvement, but an additional cobenefit of at least 40% (depending on the indicator) is brought about by the climate policy.

Langue du texte
intégral :

Anglais

Journal :

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Publisher	European Geosciences Union (EGU)
ISSN	1680-7316 (eISSN : 1680-7324)

Audience :

non spécifiée

Date de publication :

2012

Volume :

Numéro :

Page, identifiant, ... :

10613-10630


hal-00707127, version 1
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00707127
oai:hal.archives-ouvertes.fr:hal-00707127
Contributeur : Catherine Cardon <>
Soumis le : Mardi 12 Juin 2012, 09:25:37
Dernière modification le : Mercredi 14 Novembre 2012, 09:21:16