| As part of the CityZen (Megacity - Zoom for the Environment) European project, global and regional European chemistry transport models were used to simulate the past evolution of the composition of the troposphere during the 1997-2008 period, as well as its future evolution up to 2030. The simulations were performed using a consistent dataset for surface emissions. European emissions for the past period were provided by the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and processed by INERIS. The global emissions are given by the MACCity emissions dataset, derived from the ACCMIP (Emissions for Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project) dataset. We will discuss the consistency between global and regional emissions dataset, focusing on a few regions, and more particularly on Europe, the United States and China. The future emissions are based on the GEA (Global Energy Assessment) scenarios developed by IIASA. Two scenarios will be considered in this study: the first scenario assumes a full implementation of all current and planned air pollution legislation world-wide until 2030. The second scenario assumes, in addition to air quality legislation, implementation of a stringent climate policy corresponding to a 2 degree global temperature target including a moderate energy access policy corresponding to microfinance as well as fuel subsidy. We will discuss the results obtained by the simulations for the full period considered, with a focus on NOx, CO, OH and ozone. We will also discuss comparisons of the simulations provided by the reanalysis of the atmospheric composition from the MACC European project. Comparisons with surface observations of CO and ozone at selected sites located at different latitudes for the 1998-2008 period will be presented. The results of the simulations for the future will also be compared with simulations performed for different scenarios, such as the one provided by the RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways). |
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