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| HAL : hal-00707127, version 1 |
| DOI : 10.5194/acp-12-10613-2012 |
| Fiche détaillée |  Récupérer au format |
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| Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12, 21 (2012) 10613-10630 |
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| Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone |
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| Augustin Colette 1Claire Granier 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 |
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| (2012) |
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| In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment including varying assumptions on climate and energy access policies are investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric chemistry transport models. A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the model projection. Last, the modelling experiment is linked to a hind-cast study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models were extensively documented. The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone precursors such as NOx will drop to 30% to 50% of their current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O3 will slightly increase in NOx saturated areas but the overall O3 burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O3 levels for health (SOMO35) will be reduced down to 45% to 70% of their current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of daily maximumO3 is higher than 120 μg m-3 more than 25 days per year will drop from 43% down to 2 to 8%. We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both scenarios) are the main factors leading to the improvement, but an additional cobenefit of at least 40% (depending on the indicator) is brought about by the climate policy. |
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| 1 : | Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS) |
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INERIS |
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| 2 : | NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA ESRL) |
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U.S. Department of Commerce – National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration |
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| 3 : | Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) |
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CNRS : UMR8190 – Université Pierre et Marie Curie [UPMC] - Paris VI – Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines – INSU |
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| 4 : | Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL) |
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CNRS : FR636 – Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] – CEA – CNES – INSU – Université Pierre et Marie Curie [UPMC] - Paris VI – Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines – Ecole normale supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris |
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| 5 : | Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) |
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University of Colorado – NOAA |
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| 6 : | Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) (MPI-M) |
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Max-Planck-Institut |
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| 7 : | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) |
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis |
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| 8 : | University of Oslo (UiO) |
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University of Oslo |
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| 9 : | Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) |
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Center for International Climate and Environmental Research |
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| 10 : | Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research, University of Cologne (FRIUUK) |
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University of Cologne |
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| 11 : | Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC/CNR) |
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Italian National Research Council |
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| 12 : | Norwegian Meteorological Institute |
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Norwegian Meteorological Institute |
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| 13 : | Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC) |
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Université Pierre et Marie Curie [UPMC] - Paris VI |
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| 14 : | Laboratoire d'aérologie (LA) |
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CNRS : UMR5560 – Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées – INSU – Université Paul Sabatier [UPS] - Toulouse III |
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| 15 : | Chalmers University of Technology, Department Radio and Space Science |
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Chalmers University of Technology |
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| 16 : | Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE) |
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CNRS : UMR8212 – CEA : DSM/LSCE – Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines |
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| Domaine | : | Physique/Physique/Physique Atmosphérique et Océanique Sciences de l'environnement/Milieux et Changements globaux |
| hal-00707127, version 1 | |
| http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00707127 | |
| oai:hal.archives-ouvertes.fr:hal-00707127 | |
| Contributeur : Catherine Cardon | |
| Soumis le : Mardi 12 Juin 2012, 09:25:37 | |
| Dernière modification le : Mercredi 14 Novembre 2012, 09:21:16 | |
