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| HAL : hal-00554400, version 1 |
| DOI : 10.1002/qj.710 |
| Fiche détaillée |  Récupérer au format |
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| Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137, S1 (2011) 101-117 |
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| Forecasting summer convection over the Black Forest: a case study from the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS) experiment |
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| E. Richard 1J.-P. Chaboureau 1 |
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| (2011) |
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| In the mid-afternoon of 15 July 2007, during the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS), in a very warm and dry environment, an isolated, short-lived, deep convective system developed over the southern Black Forest. Most of the high-resolution, convection-permitting models involved in COPS were unable to capture this event whereas the Meso-NH forecast was quite skilful. To assess the Meso-NH performance further, the model results were carefully checked against the various and numerous COPS observations. In full agreement with clear-air radar observations, model results underlined the triggering role of a low-level convergence line that developed in the lee of the Feldberg. The main departure from the observations was found to be in the low-level moisture fields, which appeared significantly moister in the model than in the observations and also slightly moister than in the other models. Sensitivity studies showed that this departure from the observations was strongly controlled by the initial surface moisture conditions. When the surface moisture was reduced by 20% or replaced by the value derived from a different analysis, the evolution of the planetary boundary layer was more accurately represented while the storm evolution was still correctly captured. These results demonstrate that the quality of the initial forecast cannot be ascribed to the moist bias of the model. It could therefore be hypothesized that the key parameters for a satisfactory forecast of this event lie more in the ability of the model to reproduce the dynamical forcing accurately than in the characteristics of the air-mass instability. |
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| 1 : | Laboratoire d'aérologie (LA) |
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CNRS : UMR5560 – Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées – INSU – Université Paul Sabatier [UPS] - Toulouse III |
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| 2 : | Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL) |
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CNRS : FR636 – Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] – CEA – CNES – INSU – Université Pierre et Marie Curie [UPMC] - Paris VI – Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines – Ecole normale supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris |
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| 3 : | Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) |
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CNRS : UMR8190 – Université Pierre et Marie Curie [UPMC] - Paris VI – Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines – INSU |
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| 4 : | Géosciences Montpellier (GM) |
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CNRS : UMR5243 – Université Montpellier II - Sciences et techniques |
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| 5 : | Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) |
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Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) |
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| 6 : | Institutes für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK) |
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Technical University of Karlsruhe |
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| 7 : | Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell'Ambiente (Difa) |
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Universita degli Studi della Basilicta |
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| space Risques |
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| Domaine | : | Planète et Univers/Sciences de la Terre/Météorologie Planète et Univers/Sciences de la Terre/Climatologie Sciences de l'environnement/Milieux et Changements globaux |
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| Orography – Surface moisture – Water vapour |
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| hal-00554400, version 1 | |
| http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00554400 | |
| oai:hal.archives-ouvertes.fr:hal-00554400 | |
| Contributeur : Catherine Cardon | |
| Soumis le : Lundi 10 Janvier 2011, 17:01:56 | |
| Dernière modification le : Jeudi 7 Mars 2013, 13:11:03 | |
