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| HAL : hal-00707273, version 1 |
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| Annals of Botany (2010) 1-11 |
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| Switching from a mechanistic model to a continuous model to study at different scales the effect of vine growth on the dynamic of a powdery mildew epidemic |
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| Jean Baptiste Burie 1Michel Langlais 1 |
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| (2010) |
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| * Background and Aims We devised epidemiological simulation models coupling plant growth with the dispersal and disease dynamics of an airborne plant pathogen for a better understanding of host/pathogen dynamical interactions and of the capacity of grapevine development to modify powdery mildew epidemics progress. * Methods Our first model is a complex discrete mechanistic model (MM) that explicitly incorporates the dynamics of host growth and the development and dispersion of the pathogen at the vine stock scale. The second one is a simpler ODEs compartmental SEIRT model (CM) handling host growth (foliar surface) and the ontogenic resistance of the leaves. With the model MM we simulate various levels of vine development under three contrasting climatic scenarios and examine the relationship between host and disease variables at key periods in the epidemic process. We investigate the ability of model CM to retrieve the main dynamics of the disease for a range of vine growth given by model MM. * Key Results Model CM strengthens experimental results observed about the effect of the rate of leaf emergence and of the number of leaves at flowering on the severity of the disease. But it also underlines strong variations of the dynamics of disease depending on the vigour and indirectly on the climatic scenarios. Model CM could be calibrated by using model MM provided that different parameters before and after shoot topping and for various vigour levels and inoculation time are used. We obtain biologically relevant estimations of the parameters that could be used for its extension at the vineyard scale. |
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| 1 : | Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux (IMB) |
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CNRS : UMR5251 – Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux I – Université Victor Segalen - Bordeaux II |
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| 2 : | Santé Végétale (SV) |
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Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) : UR1065 – École Nationale d'Ingénieurs des Travaux Agricoles (ENITA) - Bordeaux |
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| Domaine | : | Sciences de l'environnement/Biodiversité et Ecologie Sciences du Vivant/Biologie végétale/Phytopathologie et phytopharmacie Mathématiques/Systèmes dynamiques |
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| host-pathogen models – mechanistic model – SEIRT model – host growth – powdery mildew – grapevine |
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| hal-00707273, version 1 | |
| http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00707273 | |
| oai:hal.archives-ouvertes.fr:hal-00707273 | |
| Contributeur : Michel Langlais | |
| Soumis le : Mardi 12 Juin 2012, 12:20:01 | |
| Dernière modification le : Mardi 12 Juin 2012, 12:20:01 | |
