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Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique |  |
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Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique | |
| HAL : halshs-00151569, version 1 |
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| Theory and Decision 61, 4 (2006) 345-362 |
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| Is there a "pessimistic" bias in individual beliefs ? Evidence from a simple survey |
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| Clotilde Napp 1, 2Elyès Jouini 3 |
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| (12/2006) |
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| It is an important issue for economic and finance applications to determine whether individuals exhibit a behavioral bias toward pessimism in their beliefs, in a lottery or more generally in an investment opportunities framework. In this paper, we analyze the answers of a sample of 1,540 individuals to the following question: Imagine that a coin will be flipped 10 times. Each time, if heads, you win 10 Euros. How many times do you think that you will win? The average answer is surprisingly about 3.9 which is below the average 5, and we interpret this as a pessimistic bias. We find that women are more "pessimistic" than men, as are old people relative to young. We also analyze how our notion of pessimism is related to more general notions of pessimism previously introduced in psychology. |
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| 1 : | Dauphine Recherches en Management (DRM) |
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CNRS : UMR7088 – Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine |
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| 2 : | Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique (CREST) |
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INSEE – École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique |
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| 3 : | CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision (CEREMADE) |
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CNRS : UMR7534 – Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine |
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| Discipline | : | Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Méthodes et statistiques Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Gestion et management Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Psychologie Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Etudes sur le genre |
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| pessimism – judged probability – lottery |
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| Liste des fichiers attachés à ce document : | |||||
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| halshs-00151569, version 1 | |
| http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00151569 | |
| oai:halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr:halshs-00151569 | |
| Contributeur : Clotilde Napp | |
| Soumis le : Mercredi 6 Juin 2007, 13:27:14 | |
| Dernière modification le : Mercredi 6 Juin 2007, 17:12:42 | |
