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Scientometrics 78, 3 (2008) 0
Testing bibliometric indicators by their prediction of scientists promotions
Pablo Jensen 1, 2, 3, Jean-Baptiste Rouquier 3, 4, Yves Croissant 1
(2008)

We have developed a method to obtain robust quantitative bibliometric indicators for several thousand scientists. This allows us to study the dependence of bibliometric indicators (such as number of publications, number of citations, Hirsch index...) on the age, position, etc. of CNRS scientists. Our data suggests that the normalized h index (h divided by the career length) is not constant for scientists with the same productivity but differents ages. We also compare the predictions of several bibliometric indicators on the promotions of about 600 CNRS researchers. Contrary to previous publications, our study encompasses most disciplines, and shows that no single indicator is the best predictor for all disciplines. Overall, however, the Hirsch index h provides the least bad correlations, followed by the number of papers published. It is important to realize however that even h is able to recover only half of the actual promotions. The number of citations or the mean number of citations per paper are definitely not good predictors of promotion.
1:  Laboratoire d'économie des transports (LET)
CNRS : UMR5593 – École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] – Université Lumière - Lyon II
2:  Laboratoire de Physique de l'ENS Lyon (Phys-ENS)
CNRS : UMR5672 – École Normale Supérieure - Lyon
3:  Institut Rhône-Alpin des systèmes complexes (IXXI)
INRIA – École Normale Supérieure - Lyon – Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA) : - LYON – Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I – Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines – Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I – CNRS – Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD]
4:  Laboratoire de l'Informatique du Parallélisme (LIP)
Université de Lyon – CNRS : UMR5668 – INRIA – École Normale Supérieure - Lyon – Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I
Physics/Physics/Physics and Society

Physics/Physics/Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

Humanities and Social Sciences/Sociology

Statistics/Applications
bibliometric indicators – h-index – Hirsch index – career – scientific career – academic career – promotion – citations
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