Association between population density and infection rate suggests the importance of social distancing and travel restriction in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic

Heliang Yin (1, 2, 3) , Tong Sun (3, 4) , Lan Yao (5) , Yan Jiao (2) , Li Ma (1, 2, 3) , Lin Lin (1, 2, 3) , J Carolyn Graff (6) , Lotfi Aleya (7) , Arnold Postlethwaite (8, 9) , Weikuan Gu (2, 9) , Hong Chen (1, 3)

1 Center of Integrative Research, The First Hospital of Qiqihar City, 30 Gongyuan Road, Qiqihar, Heilongjiang 161005, People’s Republic of China
2 Department of Orthopedic Surgery and BME-Campbell Clinic, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, 956 Court Avenue, Memphis, TN 38163, USA
3 Affiliated Qiqihar Hospital, Southern Medical University, Qiqihar, Heilongjiang 161007, People’s Republic of China
4 Department of Administration, The First Hospital of Qiqihar, Qiqihar, Heilongjiang 161005, People’s Republic of China
5 Health Outcomes and Policy Research, College of Graduate Health Sciences, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38103, USA
6 College of Nursing, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38105, USA
7 LCE - Laboratoire Chrono-environnement (UMR 6249)
8 Department of Medicine and Division of Connective Tissue Diseases, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38163, USA
9 Research Service, Memphis VA Medical Center, 1030 Jefferson Avenue, Memphis, TN 38104, USA

Currently, 2019-nCoV has spread to most countries of the world. Understanding the environmental factors that affect the spread of the disease COVID-19 infection is critical to stop the spread of the disease. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether population density is associated with the infection rate of the COVID-19. We collected data from official webpages of cities in China and in the USA. The data were organized on Excel spreadsheets for statistical analyses. We calculated the morbidity and population density of cities and regions in these two countries. We then examined the relationship between morbidity and other factors. Our analysis indicated that the population density in cities in Hubei province where the COVID-19 was severe was associated with a higher percentage of morbidity, with an r value of 0.62. Similarly, in the USA, the density of 51 states and territories is also associated with morbidity from COVID-19 with an r value of 0.55. In contrast, as a control group, there is no association between the morbidity and population density in 33 other regions of China, where the COVID-19 epidemic is well under control. Interestingly, our study also indicated that these associations were not influenced by the first case of COVID-19. The rate of morbidity and the number of days from the first case in the USA have no association, with an r value of − 0.1288. Population density is positively associated with the percentage of patients with COVID-19 infection in the population. Our data support the importance of such as social distancing and travel restriction in the prevention of COVID-19 spread.

Mots clés: COVID-19; Density; Population; Social distancing; Transmission

Domaines: Sciences de l'environnement

Heliang Yin, Tong Sun, Lan Yao, Yan Jiao, Li Ma, et al.. Association between population density and infection rate suggests the importance of social distancing and travel restriction in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2021, ⟨10.1007/s11356-021-12364-4⟩. ⟨hal-03118424⟩