Uncertainty sensitivity assessment on the optimization of the design and operation of complex energy systems: a comprehensive approach

Amélia Nadal (1, 2, 3) , Alain Ruby (1) , Cyril Bourasseau (1) , Delphine Riu (2) , Christophe Bérenguer (3)

1 DTCH - Département Thermique Conversion et Hydrogène
2 G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble
3 GIPSA-SAIGA - GIPSA - Signal et Automatique pour la surveillance, le diagnostic et la biomécanique

In optimization of renewable energy system, uncertainties associated to technical and economical parameters are scarcely taken in account, which may lead to a weak confidence in results. In this paper, we propose and investigate a 4-steps methodology for uncertainty sensitivity assessment, with the objective to improve confidence in the assessment results and to support decision-making process following techno-economic optimization of the design and the operation of an autonomous power system. The methodology was applied to off- grid system including photovoltaic production, battery and hydrogen components (electrolyser, pressure storage and fuel cell). This energy system is modelled and optimized with Odyssey – a simulation software developed by CEA- LITEN since 2010. We focus on static parametrical uncertainties, linked to the energy system parameters.

Mots clés: Uncertainty Modeling; Sensitivity Analysis; Hybrid Energy Systems; Uncertainty Propagation

Domaines: Automatique / Robotique; Energie électrique; Applications [stat.AP]

Amélia Nadal, Alain Ruby, Cyril Bourasseau, Delphine Riu, Christophe Bérenguer. Uncertainty sensitivity assessment on the optimization of the design and operation of complex energy systems: a comprehensive approach. ESREL 2018 - 28th European Safety and Reliability Conference, NTNU-ESRA, Jun 2018, Trondheim, Norway. pp.2627-2634. ⟨hal-01887672⟩