A Leslie matrix model for Sicyopterus lagocephalus in La Reunion: sensitivity, uncertainty and research prioritization
Résumé
We propose a Leslie matrix model for the population dynamics of S. lagocephalus in La Reunion. In order to capture both the amphidromous and the seasonal natures of the species' life history the model has four stages (sea + three river sites) and is periodic. Baseline parameters (age-specific fecundity, spatial dispersion patterns and survival rates) were chosen in such a way that the dominant eigenvalue of the year-on-year projection matrix is 1. Large uncertainties on the parameter values preclude the use of the model for management purpose. A sensitivity/uncertainty analysis sheds light on the parameters that cause much of the output to vary and that are poorly known: the life expectancy in rivers and the mortality both at river mouths and during the drift of larvae to sea. This work should help researchers understand which factors and parameters need to be better known and estimated before the model can be developed as an accurate management tool.
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