Recent changes in avalanche activity in the French Alps and their links with climatic drivers: an overview

Nicolas Eckert (1) , A. Lavigne (2) , H. Castebrunet (3) , G. Giraud (4) , Mohamed Naaim (1)

1 UR ETGR (ETNA) - Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches
2 MIA-Paris - Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées
3 LGCIE - Laboratoire de Génie Civil et d'Ingénierie Environnementale
4 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques

This paper synthetizes our ongoing work on relations between natural avalanche activity and climate change in the French Alps and subregions. Firm results mainly concern occurrences, runout altitudes and high return period avalanches on long time scales (averages over “full” winters and winter-spring sub-seasons) since ~1950. Work in progress concerns extrapolation under future climate, shorter time scales (avalanche cycles), and more generally risk assessment under unstationarity. The strength and interest of the approach rely on the exceptional quality/quantity of avalanche records and snow and weather covariates available/used and on the development of specific statistical treatment methods.

Mots clés: ACTIVITE AVALANCHEUSE; CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE; ALPES FRANCAISES; AVALANCHE ACTIVITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; TIME TRENDS

Domaines: Sciences de l'environnement

Nicolas Eckert, A. Lavigne, H. Castebrunet, G. Giraud, Mohamed Naaim. Recent changes in avalanche activity in the French Alps and their links with climatic drivers: an overview. International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW), Oct 2013, Grenoble – Chamonix Mont-Blanc, France. p. 1211 - p. 1215. ⟨hal-00951850⟩