Three simple indicators of vulnerability to climate change on a Mediterranean beach: A modeling approach
Résumé
This study assesses three different approaches for evaluating coastal vulnerability using indicators. We began by establishing a procedure for binding three codes to simulate realistic or idealized climates. The procedure was validated in terms of hydrodynamics and beach morpho-dynamics. We then defined and studied the vulnerability of the coast on the basis of in situ observations and model results taken from a set of simulations based on different scenarios. We present three simple indicator methods developed to analyze the vulnerability of a sandy beach based on the results of simulations for different wave climate scenarios. The first method is based on the wave energy, and specifically how it differs as a function of climate change scenario. The second method consists of estimating the maximum grain size mobilized. Note that the calculation of stress at the sea bottom is routinely estimated solely on the basis of simulated velocity post-wave. Here, we calculate the maximum grain size potentially mobilized with a simpler approach, based on analysis in different points along the cross-shore profile. The third method presented is the analysis of the time-course evolution of cross-shore sea bed profiles in response to different climate change scenarios.