Integration of human factors in project uncertainty management, a decision support system based on fuzzy logic

Saïna Hassanzadeh (1, 2) , François Marmier (1) , Didier Gourc (1) , Sophie Bougaret (3)

1 CGI - Centre Génie Industriel
2 Fondation pour une Culture de Sécurité Industrielle
3 MANAGEOS

Decision-making under uncertainty implies dealing with information about different choices and their consequences that is partial for the decision-maker. In front of uncertainty, either the decision can be postponed, waiting for complementary information or the decision can be only made on the available infor- mation, despite possible consequences on the decision. We propose a model to identify and structure needed information. Human factors are taken into consideration in this structure. Then, to process the collected infor- mation, we propose a Fuzzy Decision Support System (FDSS) which deals with uncertain information. In this approach, a sequence of decisions leads to a final choice, taking progressively into account new information whose role is to refine available information. Human representation and reasoning mode are imitated, respec- tively by fuzzy sets and fuzzy inference rules. We apply the proposed FDSS to a case study held on a ski resort. The results with this approach prove effective compared to those a naive decisional approach.

Mots clés: Gestion des risques

Domaines: Gestion des risques [q-fin.RM]; Gestion et management

Saïna Hassanzadeh, François Marmier, Didier Gourc, Sophie Bougaret. Integration of human factors in project uncertainty management, a decision support system based on fuzzy logic. European Safety and Reliability Conference, Sep 2011, Troyes (France), France. pp.661-669. ⟨hal-00745283⟩