Forecasting returns in reverse logistics: application to catalog and mail-order retailing

Malek Masmoudi (1)

1 ONERA - The French Aerospace Lab [Toulouse]

An efficient management of returned items is the last way to keep an unsatisfied customer. For Catalog and Mail-Order Retailers, as more than ninety percent of the returned items go back to stock, returns can be concerned as the first supplier. Quality managers study the returns as they reflect the opinion of customers against the product's quality. Thus, a precise forecast of the returns and indicators of returns is compulsory in order to optimize the supply chain and improve the service quality. The returns rate, ratio between returned and sent items, is a strategic indicator often used by several departments in catalog and mail-Order retailers. It's used to improve the Supply chain control by well forecasting the quantity of work and reducing the outstanding goods. It's also used to estimate the budget and define which items from the current season can be carried forward for the next season, and which items will need improvements. This paper presents a study of a real returns phenomenon. A new way to estimate the returns rate is provided and a study of forecasting models is explained. A phased approach to forecast returns rate is provided for distance selling sector.

Mots clés: Reverse Distribution; Forecasting; Returns; Phasing; Returns indicators; Mail-order retailing

Domaines: Recherche opérationnelle [math.OC]; Automatique / Robotique

Malek Masmoudi. Forecasting returns in reverse logistics: application to catalog and mail-order retailing. International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Systems Management, May 2011, Metz, France. pp.507-516. ⟨hal-00679924⟩