Divide and conquer? persistence of infectious agents in spatial metapopulations of hosts

Marieke Jesse , Hans Heesterbeek

Persistence of an infectious agent in a population is an important issue in epidemiology. It is assumed that spatially fragmenting a population of hosts increases the probability of persistence of an infectious agent and that movement of hosts between the patches is vital for that. The influence of migration on persistence is however often studied in mean-field models, whereas in reality the actual distance travelled can be limited and influence the movement dynamics. We use a stochastic model, where within- and between-patch dynamics are coupled and movement is modelled explicitly, to show that explicit consideration of movement distance makes the relation between persistence of infectious agents and the metapopulation structure of its hosts less straightforward than previously thought. We show that the probability of persistence is largest at an intermediate movement distance of the host and that spatially fragmenting a population of hosts is not necessarily beneficial for persistence.

Mots clés: Stochastic model; Migration; Movement distance; Patch neighbourhood; Lattice

Domaines: Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]

Marieke Jesse, Hans Heesterbeek. Divide and conquer? persistence of infectious agents in spatial metapopulations of hosts. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2011, 275 (1), pp.12. ⟨10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.01.032⟩. ⟨hal-00676094⟩