Modelling decision making in an uncertain environment

Guy Bullen (1) , Ouafae Bennis (1) , Frédéric Kratz (1)

1 PRISME - Laboratoire Pluridisciplinaire de Recherche en Ingénierie des Systèmes, Mécanique et Energétique

This article proposes a generative approach to decision making in a complex and uncertain environment, as n alternative to normative or descriptive approaches. A simple and intuitive graphical model provides management teams with a non-restrictive framework for thinking through their decisions. The second half of the article proposes a mathematical model to estimate the multiple influences between decisions in a complex project, whether they are direct or indirect. This method is applied to a real situation, with simulations and results provided.

Mots clés: STCA; decision making; modelling decisions; generative approach; influences; decision networks

Domaines: Automatique

Guy Bullen, Ouafae Bennis, Frédéric Kratz. Modelling decision making in an uncertain environment. ICMCE 2010, Nov 2010, Chengdu, China. pp.467 - 474. ⟨hal-00658412⟩