Will Circumcision Provide Even More Protection From HIV to Women and Men? New Estimates of the Population Impact of Circumcision Interventions

Timothy B Hallett (1) , Ramzi A. Alsallaq (2) , Jared Baeten (3) , Helen Weiss (4) , Connie L. Celum (3) , Ron Gray (5) , Laith Abu-Raddad (6)

1 Respiratory Epidemiology and Public Health
2 Statistical Center for HIV/AIDS Research & Prevention, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seatt
3 Departments of Global Health and Medicine, University of Washington
4 LSHTM - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
5 Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School
6 Weill Cornell Medical College - Qatar, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha

Background: Mathematical modelling has indicated that expansion of male circumcision services in high HIV prevalence settings can substantially reduce population-level HIV transmission. However, these projections need revision to incorporate new data on the effect of male circumcision on the risk of acquiring and transmitting HIV. Methods: We synthesised recent data on the effect of male circumcision during wound healing and the risk of HIV transmission to women, based on four trials of circumcision among adults and new observational data of HIV transmission rates in stable partnerships from men circumcised at younger ages. We generated new estimates for the impact of circumcision interventions in two mathematical models, representing the HIV epidemics in Zimbabwe and Kisumu, Kenya. The models did not capture the interaction between circumcision, HIV other STIs. Results: An increase in the risk of acquisition and transmission during wound healing is unlikely to have a major impact of circumcision interventions. However, we estimated that circumcision confers a 46% reduction in the rate of male-to-female HIV transmission. If this reduction begins 2 years after the procedure, the impact of circumcision is substantially enhanced and accelerated compared to previous projections with no such effect – increasing by 40% the infections averted by the intervention overall and doubling the number of infections averted among women. Conclusions: Communities, and especially women, may benefit much more from circumcision interventions than had previously been predicted and these results provide an even greater imperative to increase scale-up of safe male circumcision services.

Mots clés: AFRICA; CIRCUMCISION; EPIDEMIOLOGY; HIV; MATHEMATICAL MODEL

Timothy B Hallett, Ramzi A. Alsallaq, Jared Baeten, Helen Weiss, Connie L. Celum, et al.. Will Circumcision Provide Even More Protection From HIV to Women and Men? New Estimates of the Population Impact of Circumcision Interventions. Sexually Transmitted Infections, 2010, 87 (2), pp.88. ⟨10.1136/sti.2010.043372⟩. ⟨hal-00578449⟩