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| HAL : hal-00565025, version 1 |
| DOI : 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.01.006 |
| Fiche détaillée |  Récupérer au format |
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| Journal of Theoretical Biology 271 (2011) 87-99 |
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| A statistical-reaction-diffusion approach for analyzing expansion processes |
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| Lionel Roques 1Samuel Soubeyrand 1 |
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| URTICLIM Collaboration(s) |
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| (2011) |
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| In this article, we propose a method for analyzing the spatial variations in the range expansion of the pine processionary moth (PPM), an invasive species in France. Based on binary measurements -- the presence or absence of PPM nests -- the proposed method allows us to infer the local effect of the environment on PPM population expansion. This effect is estimated at each position $x$ using a parameter $F(x)$ that corresponds to the local PPM fitness. The data type and the two stage PPM life cycle make estimating this parameter difficult. To overcome these difficulties we adopt a mechanistic-statistical approach that combines a statistical model for the observation process with a hierarchical, reaction-diffusion based mechanistic model for the expansion process. Bayesian inference of the parameter $F(x)$ reveals that PPM fitness is spatially heterogeneous and highlights the existence of large regions associated with lower fitness. The factors underlying this lower fitness are yet to be determined. |
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| 1 : | Biostatistique et Processus Spatiaux (BIOSP) |
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INRA |
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| 2 : | Station de Zoologie Forestière |
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INRA |
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| Domaine | : | Mathématiques/Equations aux dérivées partielles Sciences de l'environnement/Biodiversité et Ecologie Sciences de l'environnement/Milieux et Changements globaux Mathématiques/Statistiques Statistiques/Théorie |
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| Mechanistic-statistical model – Reaction-diffusion – Pine processionary moth – Bayesian inference – Species range |
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| Liste des fichiers attachés à ce document : | |||||
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| hal-00565025, version 1 | |
| http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00565025 | |
| oai:hal.archives-ouvertes.fr:hal-00565025 | |
| Contributeur : Lionel Roques | |
| Soumis le : Jeudi 10 Février 2011, 17:28:55 | |
| Dernière modification le : Vendredi 11 Février 2011, 08:24:27 | |
