Through Civil War, Food Crisis and Drought: Trends in Fertility and Nuptiality in Post-Soviet Tajikistan

David Clifford (1) , Jane Falkingham (1) , Andrew Hinde (1)

1 School of Social Sciences

This article has two objectives. First, it aims to complement and extend existing research on post-socialist demographic change, which has thus far tended to focus on Central and Eastern Europe. It does this by describing the nature of post-Soviet trends in nuptiality and fertility in Tajikistan, the republic with the highest rate of population growth during the Soviet period. It finds evidence for a decrease in period fertility after independence: initially, through a decline at higher orders; then, through a significant decrease in the rate of first births, associated with a dramatic decrease in the rate of first union formation since the mid-1990s. Second, it aims to contribute to the demography of conflict and of food crisis. Most clearly, it finds strong evidence for a decrease in nuptiality and fertility associated with the 1995 food crisis.

Mots clés: Post-Soviet; Central Asia; Tajikistan; Fertility; Union formation; Civil war; Food crisis; Post-soviétique; Asie Centrale; Tadjikistan; Fécondité; Formation des unions; Guerre civile; Crise alimentaire

David Clifford, Jane Falkingham, Andrew Hinde. Through Civil War, Food Crisis and Drought: Trends in Fertility and Nuptiality in Post-Soviet Tajikistan. European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie, 2010, 26 (3), pp.325-350. ⟨10.1007/s10680-010-9206-x⟩. ⟨hal-00535483⟩