Solar activity monitoring and forecasting capabilities at Big Bear Solar Observatory
Résumé
Every hour, GHN images are transferred to the web-based BBSO Active Region Monitor (ARM; www.bbso.njit.edu/arm), which includes the most recent EUV, continuum, and magnetogram data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, together with magnetograms from the Global Oscillation Network Group. ARM also includes a variety of active region properties from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center, such as up-to-date active region positions, GOES 5-min X-ray data, and flare identification. Stokes I, V, Q, and U images are available from the recently operational BBSO Digital Vector Magnetograph and the Vector Magnetograph at the Huairou Solar Observing Station of Beijing Observatory. Vector magnetograms provide complete information on the photospheric magnetic field, and allow for magnetic flux gradients, electric currents, and shear forces to be calculated: these measurements are extremely sensitive to conditions resulting in flaring activity. Furthermore, we have developed a Flare Prediction System which estimates the probability for each region to produce C-, M-, or X-class flares based on nearly eight years of NOAA data from cycle 22. This, in addition to BBSO's daily solar activity reports, has proven a useful resource for activity forecasting.