Rainfall nowcasting by at site stochastic model P.R.A.I.S.E.

B. Sirangelo (1) , P. Versace (1) , D. L. de Luca (1)

1 Dipartimento di Difesa del Suolo

The paper introduces a stochastic model to forecast rainfall heights at site: the P.R.A.I.S.E. model (Prediction of Rainfall Amount Inside Storm Events). PRAISE is based on the assumption that the rainfall height H_i+1 accumulated on an interval ?t between the instants i?t and (i+1?t is correlated with a variable Z_i^(?), representing antecedent precipitation. The mathematical background is given by a joined probability density f_Hi+1, Z_i^(?)(h_i+1 ,z_i^(?)) in which the variables have a mixed nature, that is a finite probability in correspondence to the null value and infinitesimal probabilities in correspondence to the positive values. As study area, the Calabria region, in Southern Italy, was selected, to test performances of the PRAISE model.

Domaines: Interfaces continentales, environnement; Océan, Atmosphère; Sciences de la Terre

B. Sirangelo, P. Versace, D. L. de Luca. Rainfall nowcasting by at site stochastic model P.R.A.I.S.E.. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2007, 11 (4), pp.1341-1351. ⟨hal-00305229⟩