Prediction of magnetic storm events using the D_st index

V. V. Anh (1, 2) , Z. G. Yu (1) , J. A. Wanliss (3) , S. M. Watson (2)

1 Program in Statistics and Operations Research
2 FSI - Florida Space Institute [Orlando]
3 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

This paper provides a method to predict magnetic storm events based on the time series of the D_st index over the period 1981-2002. This method is based on the multiple scaling of the measure representation of the D_st time series. This measure is modeled as a recurrent iterated function system, which leads to a method to predict storm patterns included in its attractor. Numerical results are provided to evaluate the performance of the method in outside-sample forecasts.

Domaines: Cosmologie et astrophysique extra-galactique [astro-ph.CO]; Astrophysique [astro-ph]; Sciences de la Terre

V. V. Anh, Z. G. Yu, J. A. Wanliss, S. M. Watson. Prediction of magnetic storm events using the D_st index. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2005, 12 (6), pp.799-806. ⟨hal-00302592⟩