Strong earthquakes can be predicted: a multidisciplinary method for strong earthquake prediction

J. Z. Li (1) , Z. Q. Bai (1) , W. S. Chen (1) , Y. Q. Xia (1) , Y. R. Liu (1) , Z. Q. Ren (2)

1 Institute of Earthquake Prediction Research
2 CAMS - Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

The imminent prediction on a group of strong earthquakes that occurred in Xinjiang, China in April 1997 is introduced in detail. The prediction was made on the basis of comprehensive analyses on the results obtained by multiple innovative methods including measurements of crustal stress, observation of infrasonic wave in an ultra low frequency range, and recording of abnormal behavior of certain animals. Other successful examples of prediction are also enumerated. The statistics shows that above 40% of 20 total predictions jointly presented by J. Z. Li, Z. Q. Ren and others since 1995 can be regarded as effective. With the above methods, precursors of almost every strong earthquake around the world that occurred in recent years were recorded in our laboratory. However, the physical mechanisms of the observed precursors are yet impossible to explain at this stage.

Domaines: Interfaces continentales, environnement; Océan, Atmosphère; Sciences de la Terre

J. Z. Li, Z. Q. Bai, W. S. Chen, Y. Q. Xia, Y. R. Liu, et al.. Strong earthquakes can be predicted: a multidisciplinary method for strong earthquake prediction. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2003, 3 (6), pp.703-712. ⟨hal-00299091⟩