Catchment modeling and model transferability in upper Blue Nile Basin, Lake Tana, Ethiopia
Résumé
Understanding spatial and temporal distribution of water resources has an important role for water resource management. To understand water balance dynamics and runoff generation mechanisms at the Gilgel Abay catchment (a major tributary into lake Tana, source of Blue Nile, Ethiopia) and to evaluate model transferability, catchment modeling was conducted using the conceptual hydrological model HBV. The catchment of the Gigel Abay was sub-divided into two gauged sub-catchments (Upper Gilgel Abay, UGASC, and Koga, KSC) and one ungauged sub-catchment.
Manual calibration of the daily models for three different catchment representations (CRs): (i) lumped, (ii) lumped with multiple vegetation zones, and (iii) semi-distributed with vegetations zone and elevation zones, showed good to satisfactory model performance (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values, Reff>0.75 and >0.6, respectively, for UGASC and KSC). The change of the time step to fifteen and thirty days resulted in very good model performances in both sub-catchments (Reff>0.8). The model parameter transferability tests conducted on the daily models showed poor performance in both sub-catchments, whereas the fifteen and thirty days models yielded high Reff values using transferred parameter sets. This together with the sensitivity analysis carried out after Monte Carlo simulations (1 000 000 model runs) per CR explained the reason behind the difference in hydrologic behaviors of the two sub-catchments UGASC and KSC. The dissimilarity in response pattern of the sub-catchments was caused by the presence of dambos in KSC and differences in the topography between UGASC and KSC. Hence, transferring model parameters from the view of describing hydrological process was found to be not feasible for all models. On the other hand, from a water resources management perspective the results obtained by transferring parameters of the larger time step model were acceptable.
Manual calibration of the daily models for three different catchment representations (CRs): (i) lumped, (ii) lumped with multiple vegetation zones, and (iii) semi-distributed with vegetations zone and elevation zones, showed good to satisfactory model performance (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values, Reff>0.75 and >0.6, respectively, for UGASC and KSC). The change of the time step to fifteen and thirty days resulted in very good model performances in both sub-catchments (Reff>0.8). The model parameter transferability tests conducted on the daily models showed poor performance in both sub-catchments, whereas the fifteen and thirty days models yielded high Reff values using transferred parameter sets. This together with the sensitivity analysis carried out after Monte Carlo simulations (1 000 000 model runs) per CR explained the reason behind the difference in hydrologic behaviors of the two sub-catchments UGASC and KSC. The dissimilarity in response pattern of the sub-catchments was caused by the presence of dambos in KSC and differences in the topography between UGASC and KSC. Hence, transferring model parameters from the view of describing hydrological process was found to be not feasible for all models. On the other hand, from a water resources management perspective the results obtained by transferring parameters of the larger time step model were acceptable.
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