Predicting the future from observable sequences of events in astrophysics I. Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a fixed number of parameters

C. Röken (1) , I. Lerche (1)

1 RUB-TP4 - Institut für Theoretische Physik - Lehrstuhl IV: Weltraum- und Astrophysik

Using analytical and numerical methods, estimates are given of future predictions in astrophysics that can be gathered from a sequence of observed events, for example for ?-ray bursts. Some general probability considerations are provided and then a maximum likelihood estimation, together with an approximation for the large number limit of possible events. Illustrations are given of the numerical maximum likelihood estimation programs in the situations of both a large number and a finite number of events. The effects of data uncertainty are also considered. Numerical calculations and comparisons with theoretical expectations are presented too.

Domaines: Cosmologie et astrophysique extra-galactique [astro-ph.CO]; Astrophysique [astro-ph]

C. Röken, I. Lerche. Predicting the future from observable sequences of events in astrophysics I. Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a fixed number of parameters. Astrophysics and Space Sciences Transactions, 2007, 3 (1), pp.1-13. ⟨hal-00297484⟩