Problems of Forecast

Dmitry Kucharavy (1) , Roland de Guio (1)

1 LGeco - Laboratoire de Génie de la Conception

The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast is proposed. Third, the paper examines how some knowledge from the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) can be applied in response to forecasting problems. Fourth, conclusions are drawn about the perspectives for reliable technology forecasting. All of these reflections are supported by the research experience gained in the project with the European Institute for Energy Research (EIfER, Karlsruhe).

Mots clés: Technology Forecast; Laws of Technical systems evolution; Analysis of Contradictions

Domaines: Autre

Dmitry Kucharavy, Roland de Guio. Problems of Forecast. ETRIA TRIZ Future 2005, Nov 2005, Graz, Austria. pp.219-235. ⟨hal-00282761⟩