Application of S-Shaped Curves

Dmitry Kucharavy (1) , Roland de Guio (1)

1 LGeco - Laboratoire de Génie de la Conception

This paper deals with the application of S-shaped curves in the contexts of inventive problem solving, innovation and technology forecasts. After explaining the origin of the logistic S-curve its application, as seen in publications from different domains, is reviewed. Despite much criticism and the failure to apply the logistic function for long-term forecasting, it continues to be a popular model for describing the evolution of systems (technological, economical, social and others) over time. This paper can help researchers and practitioners to understand the scope of application of S-shaped patterns, their limitations, and peculiarities.

Keywords: Laws of technical systems evolution; Resource limitations; Technology Future Analysis; S-shaped curve; S-curve

Domains: Other

Dmitry Kucharavy, Roland de Guio. Application of S-Shaped Curves. TRIZ-Future Conference 2007: Current Scientific and Industrial Reality, Nov 2007, Frankfurt, Germany. pp.81-88. ⟨hal-00282758⟩