| This paper discusses an approach that points out technological problems that may occur whilst designing emerging technologies. The shape of the problem maps, which are obtained as an output of the proposed approach, is compatible with inputs of OTSM or TRIZ problem solving processes used in innovative design. One of the standard ways of gathering knowledge and information (qualitative and quantitative) about new technologies is to elicit them from experts. Existing approaches may produce some biased knowledge. Indeed, a result of this approach is either over-optimism about emerging technologies or missed opportunities (stemming from pessimistic evaluation). We propose to reduce bias through a problem mapping approach that extracts and organizes expert knowledge in the shape of a network of interlinked contradictions. First, an overview of forecasting methods which apply S-shaped curves is presented. The concept of the S-curve being shaped by resource limitations is discussed. Some reasons behind the complexity of assessing resource limitations are proposed. Secondly, the concept of problem mapping is introduced. Some features of the practice of problem mapping are discussed. The third part examines how problem mapping can be purposefully applied for assessing technological barriers using examples from emerging energy conversion technology. Finally problem mapping is considered from the viewpoint of knowledge management, inventive problem solving, and decision making within the context of studying future technology and innovative design. |
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1Roland De Guio 1
