A regional Bayesian POT model for flood frequency analysis

Mathieu Ribatet (1, 2) , Eric Sauquet (1) , Jean-Michel Grésillon (1) , Taha Ouarda (2)

1 UR HHLY - Hydrologie-Hydraulique
2 INRS - Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique [Québec]

Flood frequency analysis is usually based on the fitting of an extreme value distribution to the local streamflow series. However, when the local data series is short, frequency analysis results become unreliable. Regional frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce the estimation uncertainty. In this work, we propose a regional Bayesian model for short record length sites. This model is less restrictive than the index flood model while preserving the formalism of "homogeneous regions". The performance of the proposed model is assessed on a set of gauging stations in France. The accuracy of quantile estimates as a function of the degree of homogeneity of the pooling group is also analysed. The results indicate that the regional Bayesian model outperforms the index flood model and local estimators. Furthermore, it seems that working with relatively large and homogeneous regions may lead to more accurate results than working with smaller and highly homogeneous regions.

Mots clés: Regional frequency analysis; Bayesian inference; Index flood; L-moments; Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Domaines: Applications [stat.AP]; Hydrologie

Mathieu Ribatet, Eric Sauquet, Jean-Michel Grésillon, Taha Ouarda. A regional Bayesian POT model for flood frequency analysis. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2006, 21 (4), pp.327-339. ⟨10.1007/s00477-006-0068-z⟩. ⟨hal-00232788⟩