High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M >= 5 Earthquakes in California

A. Helmstetter (1) , Yan Y. Kagan (2) , David D. Jackson (2)

1 LDEO - Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
2 IGPP - Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics [Los Angeles]

We have developed time-independent forecasts for California assuming that small earthquakes can be used to map the distribution of large damaging earthquakes, as suggested by Ka!a and Levin (2000). Indeed, large earthquakes o"en nucleate in areas that have a large density of small events. We have #rst declustered the catalog to remove large $uctuations of seismic activity that do not represent the long-term average. We have then estimated the spatial density of seismicity using a kernel method to smooth the location of magnitude M

Domaines: Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]; Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]; Tectonique

A. Helmstetter, Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson. High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M >= 5 Earthquakes in California. Seismological Research Letters, 2007, 78 (1), pp.78-86. ⟨hal-00195399⟩