Long term object drift in the ocean with tide and wind.

Pierre Ailliot (1, 2) , Emmanuel Frenod (1, 3) , Valérie Monbet (1, 2)

1 LEMEL - Laboratoire d'Etude et Modélisation des Environnements littoraux
2 SABRES - Laboratoire de Statistique Appliquée de l'Université de Bretagne-Sud
3 LMAM - Laboratoire de Mathématiques et Applications des Mathématiques, EA 3885

In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast the drift of objects in near coastal ocean on a period of several weeks. The proposed approach consists in estimating the probability of events linked to the drift using Monte Carlo simulations. It couples an averaging method which permits to decrease the computational cost and a statistical method in order to take into account the variability of meteorological loading factors.

Mots clés: Averaging method; Two scale modeling; Monte Carlo simulation; Wind time series; Ocean forecasting; Object drift

Domaines: Modélisation et simulation; Analyse numérique [math.NA]

Pierre Ailliot, Emmanuel Frenod, Valérie Monbet. Long term object drift in the ocean with tide and wind.. Multiscale Modeling and Simulation: A SIAM Interdisciplinary Journal, 2006, 5 (2), pp.514 -- 531. ⟨hal-00129093⟩