Modelling the impact of an invasive insect via reaction-diffusion

Lionel Roques (1) , Marie-Anne Auger-Rozenberg (2) , Alain Roques (2)

1 BioSP - Biostatistique et Processus Spatiaux
2 URZF - Unité de recherche Zoologie Forestière

An exotic, specialist seed chalcid, Megastigmus schimitscheki, has been introduced along with its cedar host seeds from Turkey to southeastern France during the early 1990s. It is now expanding in plantations of Atlas Cedar (Cedrus atlantica). We propose a two-dimensional reaction-diffusion model to predict the expansion and impacts of this insect. Two main diffusion operators, of Fokker-Planck and Fickian types, are tested. We show that taking account of spatial heterogeneity, and choosing the appropriate operator are critical for obtaining good predictions.

Mots clés: Insect dispersal; Reaction-diffusion model; Megastigmus; Cedar

Domaines: Equations aux dérivées partielles [math.AP]

Lionel Roques, Marie-Anne Auger-Rozenberg, Alain Roques. Modelling the impact of an invasive insect via reaction-diffusion. 2007. ⟨hal-00004917v4⟩